Inside the data that disprove the ‘Great Replacement’ theory

huhHe spoke with great certainty, and yet none exist.

Even within the racist, trope-filled universe of anger and bigotry that the alleged Buffalo shooter had stepped into, the railings of hate he relied on don’t survive the check.

Even judged by his own white supremacist underpinnings, the so-called “Great Replacement” theory that led an 18-year-old man from Conklin, New York, to drive for two hours to Buffalo and allegedly opened fire at a convenience store where he hoped to targeting people of color and where 10 people lost their lives does not come up.

Essentially, whites are not suffering a “genocide” in the United States and Europe, and while there is demographic change, its magnitude and magnitude is hotly debated by experts.

Moreover, commentators and social scientists say, white people, as a group, are unlikely to lose the privileged position they currently occupy, even as the American population becomes more racially diverse.

“This event was perpetrated by a sick, demented person who was fed a daily diet of hatred,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said.

“Let’s come together as one and let’s put all differences aside and let’s all stand and remember the words of Dr. [Martin Luther] King, that love, only love, will conquer hate.”

Authorities in Erie County, New York, have charged Payton Gendron on a single charge of first degree murder, to which he has pleaded not guilty.

They have said the young man “wanted to continue his frenzy” after attacking a Tops supermarket on Saturday.

“He would get in his car and drive down Jefferson Avenue and keep doing the same thing,” Buffalo Police Commissioner Joseph Gramaglia told CNN.

New York officials are currently investigating a 180-page “manifesto” published on the 4chan website, allegedly posted by the 18-year-old before he started the shooting, which he streamed live. It says he was inspired by watching a video of the 2019 mass shooting in Christchurch, New Zealand, which was also streamed live.

Police call Buffalo shooting ‘pure evil’

“This crisis of mass immigration and sub-replacement fertility is an attack on the European people which, if not fought, will ultimately result in the complete racial and cultural replacement of the European people,” says the manifesto, reflecting many of its kind. , including the one posted by white supremacist Dylann Roof before he attacked a black church in Charleston, South Carolina, in June 2015.

The manifesto echoes many of the claims made by believers in the Great Replacement Theory, an idea of ​​white defeat and decimation that has been around for decades, even centuries, but has only recently adopted that name.

Throughout the centuries of black slavery in the United States, there were constant racist claims that white people would lose their place if African Americans were recognized as full citizens.

In early 20th century Europe, there was a belief among some that white elites might lose out to migrants from those nations’ colonies.

The racist themes at the heart of Nazi ideology claimed that white people would be wiped out by Jewish people. In his defense of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has falsely claimed that Russian-speakers in Ukraine were wiped out.

In terms of publications promoting such an idea, the FBI suggests that one of the most influential de The Turner Diariesa 1978 novel written by William Luther Pierce under the pseudonym Andrew Macdonald about a violent revolution in the United States with a race war, and Le Grand Replacementor The great replacementpublished in 2011 by Renaud Camus, a French writer.

These ideas have become completely mainstream in American politics over the past decade, with everyone from Donald Trump to Tucker Carlson repeating his core idea that white people are losing their place to people of color.

Ten killed after white gunman deliberately aimed at grocery store used by people of color

(AFP via Getty Images)

Last year, Carlson, who denied being racist and rejecting acts of political violence, was criticized for a segment in which he said the Democratic Party was “trying to replace the current electorate” in the United States with “new people, more obedient people.” ”. voters from the developing world”.

Among those who came to Carlson’s defense was Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida, who tweeted that the TV host “was RIGHT on the substitution theory as he explains what is happening to America.”

America’s demographics are definitely changing. The Census Bureau said in its most recent publication: “The single white adult population (aged 18 and older) went from 74.7 percent in 2010 to 64.1 percent in 2020. In contrast, the multiracial adult population increased from 2.1 percent. in 2010 to 8.8 percent in 2020.”

But Richard Alba, professor of sociology at the City University of New York (CUNY), and author of Remaking the American Mainstreamtells the independent that the statement is misleading.

The seemingly dramatic decline, he says, has to do not so much with a shift in the field as with a shift in coding by the Census Bureau, and a decision to allow people to choose more than one race. to indicate their identity.

“I think ‘the great replacement theory’, like many of the usual alarmist-to-white ways of looking at demographic change, is based on a binary view of society, which is that society is made up of two ethno-racial components, whites on one side and non-whites on the other,” he says.

“What that distorts is the amount of mixing that is happening in the United States today, that is, whites and non-whites forming families and having children.”

Some estimates suggest that white people in the US could become “minority white” by 2045, meaning whites will make up 49.7 percent of the population that year, as opposed to 24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians, and 3.8 percent for multiracial populations.

Alba, who published most recently The Great Demographic Illusion: Majority, Minority, and the Growing American Mainstreamsays there is much less certainty about when the US will become a “majority minority.”

He also argues that the rising number of young Americans from ethnic-racially mixed families, consisting of one white and one non-white parent, are being ignored.

“The contemporary intellectual landscape, dominated by theories of race and racism, has led to a majority-minority conception of the American future, in which white people will be outnumbered Americans of color by the middle of the century,” he writes in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

“But assimilation, as a series of processes with societal implications, is still potent, driven by demographic dynamics that generate opportunities for minority mobility, and is linked to an increasing family mix between white and non-white people.”

Even with the landscape of a changing America, others have pointed out that other key tenets of the “Great Replacement” theory don’t hold.

An article in the The daily dot disproved another claim – that white birth rates are falling. It said, according to Pew Social and Demographic Trends, the birth rates for self-identified white, black, Hispanic and Asian people are all in decline.

It was also falsely flagged, another long-standing right-wing talking point — that non-white populations are more violent or prone to crime. It pointed to a 2015 report by the The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine that said, “Neighbourhoods with greater concentrations of immigrants have much lower crime and violence rates than comparable non-immigrant neighborhoods.”

Meanwhile, a highly regarded article by The New York TimesFarhad Manjoo in the wake of the March 2019 white terror attacks on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, pointed out that numbers alone do not tell the whole story or the power or influence of different groups.

He made the argument — a point echoed during the racial justice protests that swept the US in the summer of 2020 after the George Floyd assassination — that structural racism protected the relative privilege of white people.

The same is true of places like South Africa, where three decades after the end of apartheid, whites control and dominate 70 percent of the arable land, despite only making up 10 percent of the population.

“Demography is not fate either,” Manjoo wrote in the New York Times

“Even if whites become a racial minority in a few decades, they will not automatically lose much of their enormous economic and political power, for this is America, where inequality is tolerated and a disadvantaged and wealthy political minority can hold sway indefinitely. †

Additional Associated Press coverage

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