Can the Warriors keep up with the home favorite cover trend? Plus, other best bets for Wednesday

Good afternoon gambling lovers, Chris Bengel is back with you. It’s been a mixed day with the Panthers and Angels totally forgetting to show up for us, but there are a few spots where we can bounce back on Tuesday’s slate.

In terms of the NBA playoffs, the Heat continues to impress me. It’s a group that has had a phenomenal season, but I just wasn’t sure if they could get the job done against the elite teams of the Eastern Conference. However, they proved me completely wrong and really flexed their muscles during the second half of Tuesday’s game. As a fan of the Philadelphia 76ers, it is painful to watch Jimmy Butler dominate as he did with 41 points in Game 1. Miami’s defense was also sensational and makes the opponent’s life so hard. This is definitely a dangerous team that is more than capable of winning an NBA title this season.

We have the Western Conference Finals starting on Wednesday, so I have a few picks from that game. Let’s get started right away!

All times East, and all opportunities through Caesars Sportsbook

The warm card

mavericks vs. Warriors, 9 p.m. | TV: TNT

Last Chances:

Golden State Warriors -5.5

  • Main trend: The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games
  • The Choice: Warriors -5.5 (-110)

The Western Conference final is tipping over and it’s not exactly the match many had envisioned. That’s because the Suns and Grizzlies, the two best seeds in the West, are out. Still, a phenomenal series between the Warriors and Mavericks awaits us.

The Warriors and Mavericks faced each other three times in the regular season, with the Mavericks taking two wins. The postseason is a whole different animal though, and I’m on the Warriors side of the spread in this one.

Listen, the Mavericks are clearly more than capable of staying with the elite teams in the Western Conference as they dominated the Suns in a Game 7 blowout. But the Warriors have been in these spots before and this is such a deep team that Golden State has been for quite some time.

They really excel when they play at home as they have won in five of their last seven games in which they were the home favourites. The Warriors also have a 4-1-1 record ATS in their last six Conference Finals games. It doesn’t hurt that the Warriors have a balanced scoring effort where Stephen Curry doesn’t have to carry most of the burden. In a 110-96 series win over the Grizzlies in the previous round, four of Golden State’s five starters finished in double figures.

Another choice for Warriors-Mavericks

The pick: Jordan Poole over 16.5 points (-105)If you’ve been following my picks for the past few months, you know I’m a huge Jordan Poole fan. Poole has truly become a great asset to this Golden State backcourt. He moved into a reserve role earlier this postseason, but Poole has still managed to be extremely efficient.

When it comes to Game 1, Poole is counted on to produce from the couch. In three of his last six games, Poole has scored at least 17 points. Aside from a three-point performance in Game 5 of the previous round, Poole has been hovering right around those 17 points he has to hit on Wednesday.

One of the biggest reasons Poole can easily overshadow this number is his three-point marksmanship. During the post-season of 2022, Poole will make 39.1 percent of his shots out of three and will have hit at least three long-range shots in five of those matches. Now that Poole can be a three-point threat, this number should go away.

Main trend: Poole has scored at least 17 points in three of his last six games


Oilers at Flames, 9.30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Last Chances:

Calgary Flames -160

The choice: flames (-160) — Both the Flames and Oilers are coming out of Game 7 victories in hard-fought series. As the two teams battle to brag in the Canadian province of Alberta, I’m definitely on the side of the favorite Flames in this one.

The Flames have really excelled at playing on their home ice lately. They won three of their last four games against the Stars at home in the opening round. Calgary also holds a 6-1 record in their last seven home favorites, winning in 24 of their last 33 home games. Winger Johnny Gaudreau comes off a strong series in which he sheds the label of no major playoff producer. Gaudreau registered two goals and six assists against the Stars, including four at home.

With Gaudreau playing his best hockey of the season and goalkeeper Jacob Markstrom playing well in the net, I’m happy to take home favorites to win this one.

Main trend: The Flames are 6-1 in their last seven home favorites

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