5 Best Sunday Night Baseball Bets

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more insights into sports betting, check out DraftKings.com.

The Mets and Phillies will face a National League East showdown on Sunday Night Baseball. The Mets have got off to a phenomenal start this season, hitting a 31-17 record in their first 48 games. That follows only the Dodgers in the NL – and it has given the Mets a huge edge over a weak division. None of the other squads are above .500 and the Mets have an 8 1/2 game lead over the Braves in second place. That gives them the biggest lead in any division in baseball.

The Phillies have dropped the first two games of this series, leaving them at just 21-26 this year. That is a big disappointment for a team that has entered the year with great expectations.

Can they avoid a Sunday night sweep? Let’s dive into some of my favorite Sunday Night Baseball bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Schwarber over 0.5 home runs (+350)

Looking at the home run props in this matchup, the Phillies seem to be the target of choice. Mets starter Chris Bassitt struggled with the long ball this season, allowing 1.53 home runs per nine innings. Zack Wheeler has only allowed 0.40 home runs per nine innings, so the Phillies look more likely to hit the ball over the fence on Sunday night.

Bassitt’s battle is primarily against left-handed batters. He has a 5.25 FIP in that split and left-handed opponents have averaged two home runs per nine innings against Bassitt this season.

The Phillies’ lineup consists mostly of right-handed batters, but they have two huge exceptions: Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Harper is undoubtedly the better hitter of the two, but Schwarber can go just as deep and is available at a slightly better price tag. Schwarber scores at least the 90th percentile this season in barrel rate, average exit speed, and hard hit rate — so when he makes contact, the ball tends to go a long way.

Schwarber also typically likes to face the Mets. He posted a 1,077 career OPS in that matchup, hitting 16 home runs in 38 career games.

Luis Guillorme over 0.5 goals (-215)

Guillorme got off to a terrible start this season. He went hitless through his first 12 at bats, shaving off his signature beard.

Since then, Guillorme has been nearly impossible to get out. He raised his batting average to .352 for the year, including a blistering .377 against right-handed pitchers. At home, he has a ridiculous batting average of .444 against right-handed pitchers.

Guillorme moved up to the leadoff spot in the lineup on Saturday, responding with three more hits. If Brandon Nimmo stays out of the lineup – he is currently dealing with a right wrist injury – Guillorme could end up back in the lead-off spot on Sunday. Wheeler represents a tough matchup, but Guillorme is a great bet to get at least one hit with the potential for five at bats. Be sure to keep an eye on the lineup, but Guillorme is overpriced when he’s at the top of the lineup.

Zack Wheeler under 6.5 strikeouts (-155)

Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He was dominant for the Phillies last season, throwing to a 2.78 ERA with a 10.42 K/9 over 213 1/3 innings. That was good enough for a second place in the NL Cy Young voting.

His traditional stats aren’t as impressive this year — his ERA has dropped slightly to 3.38 — but his 2.33 FIP is actually a small improvement. He also continues to strikeout batters with a strong clip, striking out 10.13 per nine innings.

However, the Mets are a brutal match-up from a strikeout perspective. New batting coach Eric Chavez has emphasized the importance of connecting and the Mets have done it superbly this season. They scored in just 18.8 percent of at bats against right-handed pitchers, the lowest figure in the league.

Wheeler managed just three touches in his first start vs. the Mets. That was his first appearance of the year and he faced only 19 batters, but his 5.79 K/9 was his lowest of his total of eight starts. The under has been bumped up to -155, but I’ll gladly pay that price in a brutal matchup.

Phillies over 3.5 runs (-125)

While Wheeler gives the Phillies the clear pitching advantage in this matchup, Bassitt has been no slouch for the Mets. He has posted a 3.91 ERA in his first nine starts and has gotten one deserved run or less in five outings. That includes his only previous start against the Phillies, which he limited to just one run over 5 2/3 innings.

Bassitt begins to show some vulnerability, however. He has allowed 12 total earned runs over his past two starts and his advanced stats suggest more regression could be coming. His 4.54 FIP is still higher than his ERA and opposing batters are making good contact with him. They have made hard contact on 36% of batted ball events, which is the third worst point in his career.

The Phillies’ offense has not lived up to expectations this season, but they are still packed with outstanding batters. Harper, Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins and JT Realmuto are all capable of dealing damage in the batter’s box, so this isn’t an easy setup to navigate. I think they can get to Bassitt on Sunday night.

No runs in the first inning (-135)

I usually like to bet on a run to be scored in the first inning. It is the lone inning in which both teams are guaranteed to get their top three batters on the plate and it is routinely the highest scoring inning of the year. From 1921 through 2018, the first inning was the highest-scoring inning of the season 85 times, accounting for a nearly 87% clip. The Mets have scored 37.5% of the time this season in the first inning — the seventh-highest run in the Majors — while the Phillies have scored 29.8% of the time in the first inning.

However, I am going to support the pitchers to keep the fouls off the board to start the game on Sunday. Wheeler was absolutely elite in the first inning this season. He has yet to give up a single run in the opening frame — and he’s only allowed a total of eight hits in 33 at bats. Bassitt hasn’t been quite as dominant, but he still has a respectable 4.00 ERA in the opening inning. His troubles came through the lineup in the second and third times, so he should be able to hold the Phillies at bay to start the game.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and sometimes play on my personal account in the games I advise on. While I have given my personal opinion on the games and strategies above, they are do not necessarily reflect the opinion(s) of DraftKings and do not represent that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers must use their own skills and judgment when building setups. I can also use other players and strategies than I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to non-public information.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, you can contact emergency and emergency referral services by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA /WV/WY) , 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800 -889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Only physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates under an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.